What the stats say

4/2/2020

GHI reviews the latest Covid-19 data released by the World Health Organization, governments and aviation analysts over the past week. Which countries have seen a rapid rise in cases? Are there areas where the pandemic is starting to plateau and what does that tell us?

Let’s start off where we finished last week’s column. President Trump had just signalled his intent for the US to overcome the coronavirus outbreak by Easter. That news might not be fake, but it has been shown to be wildly inaccurate in the intervening seven days. The US has now added more than 130,000 coronavirus positive tests to become the number one country in the world by cases confirmed.

A less bombastic President is now asking the US to brace itself for a ‘painful two weeks’ with the White House predicting the virus could kill 1000,000-240,000 people. North America is now wrestling away Europe’s crown as the epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Europe retains that unwelcome title both by total number of deaths and confirmed cases. The latest data from Italy- worst hit by the Covid-19 crisis-  is potentially instructive and it is with a glimmer of hope that both the daily fatality and new cases rates have seen a slight decline since 27 March and 21 March respectively.  All eyes will be on whether this is truly the start of the decent in the coronavirus curve or merely a temporary stall on the way to an even loftier peak.

The optimists can also turn their gaze to Wuhan City and hope. The city which went into lockdown on 20 January partially reopened this week. Residents have immerged from their homes to once again step into shopping malls heralded by the government’s mantra of resuming work, resuming production. Wuhan City has claimed 63,000 Covid-19 patients discharged. 

However, the question everyone is asking is: will the virus return for a second wave? We’ll know more by next week’s ‘By Numbers’ column. Until then from everyone on the GHI team, please stay safe.

Top 10 countries by confirmed cases of Covid-19
  1. US: 189,633 (3)
  2. Italy: 105,792 (2)
  3. Spain: 102,136 (4)
  4. China: 82,308 (1)
  5. Germany: 72,383 (5)
  6. France: 52,837 (7)
  7. Iran: 47,593 (6)
  8. UK: 25,504 (10)
  9. Switzerland: 16,605 (8)
  10. Belgium: 13,964 (New)
*Brackets indicate top 10 position last week

Top 10 data source 

Other sources and further reading:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/donald-trump-coronavirus-briefing-painful-us-deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/china-gets-mixed-results-in-its-attempt-to-lift-lockdown