Operators urged to have their say on the impact of short, medium and long-term Covid-19 recovery scenarios


ICAO asks for industry input on what different pandemic scenarios will mean for employment, financial capability and investment

Industry stakeholders have been urged to have their say on the operational impact of three varying Covid-19 recovery scenarios ranging from a rapid 3 month return to business to a prolonged two year hiatus.

The document published by ICAO proposes recovery guidance (short, medium and long‐term) with respective influencing factors and foreseeable challenges associated.

Extensive nationalisations, state subsidies and a disappearance of premium travel are mooted in a discussion area on financial capability following an extended pandemic (1-2 years).

A section on employment under this lengthy recovery scenario also forecasts: “Extensive unemployment in the industry resulting in shortages of pilots, crews, ground handlers, controllers, etc,”.

The prognosis flips to “operational capabilities not affected” and “trade and tourism expected to recover by Q4” under a milder, 3-6 month Covid-19 pandemic model.

Industry submissions to the different scenarios will aid ICAO in its efforts: “to design and develop recovery mechanisms and action plans towards stabalization and expediated recovery from these economic hardships,” the document stated.

Each government had a “primary responsibility” to assist its own aviation market and help bolster its economic recovery post pandemic by doing so, ICAO added. “The role of national level recovery mechanisms and action plans cannot be overemphasized,” the document stated. “Taking into consideration the direct and indirect benefits generated by civil aviation to their national economies, States need to develop recovery mechanisms and action plans, as a matter of urgency.”

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